Having barely recovered from the successive waves of the Covid-19 pandemic, European economies are now facing another serious shock. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that have followed have given rise to inﬂation rates unseen for several decades, driven primarily by higher energy prices. Macroeconomic policy responses have been swift, with governments taking fiscal measures to mitigate the impact on households and firms, and the European Central Bank reversing its hitherto loose monetary policy stance. These changes have been taking place in the midst of unfinished or ongoing reforms in the context that frames national fiscal and monetary policies. Following the suspension of the fiscal rules since 2020, the EU member states are expected to decide on how to reform EU economic governance, whereas the ECB launched its new monetary policy strategy in summer 2021 and is expected to review it by 2024.
One of the key question arising from these developments is what the impact will be on employment. The ETUI has commissioned the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), for the second year in a row, to produce short- to medium-term projections of employment dynamics in Europe – by country, sector and labour force group – under different scenarios of the evolution of European economies. This event will feature a presentation of their results, followed by a panel discussion about what the implications are for macroeconomic policymaking in national governments and the European Central Bank.
The publication is available here.
Introduction and chair: Sotiria Theodoropoulou, Head of unit European economic, employment and social policies, ETUI
Presentation of the report "Short- and medium-term sectoral employment forecasts 2021–2027" by Robert Stehrer, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) Download here his presentation
Comments by Liina Carr (Confederal Secretary, ETUC), João Nogueira Martins (Head of unit Policy Coordination, DG Ecfin, EC) and Martin Sandbu (European economics commentator, Financial Times)